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Figure 13. The historical world oil production along with crude oil forecast the reference scenario from IEA World
Energy Outlook 2008. A constant decline rate of existing production of 6%, combined with an increasing share of
fields in decline, is displayed as one possibility. Our other scenario is a case with increasing average decline. The
IEA WEO 2008 forecast for fields in production (FIP) is compared to our own estimates of reasonable decline rates
and the contribution from declining fields. The IEA forecast is reasonable in the near-term, but towards 2030, it
seems optimistically biased. Using a constant decline rate compared to an increasing rate can mean as much as 7
Mb/d of production capacity by 2030.
Summary :
The IEA WEO 2008 forecast for fields in production (FIP) is compared to our own estimates of reasonable decline rates and the contribution from declining fields.
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decline,production,fields,increasing,forecast,rate,iea,world,compared,scenario,reasonable,oil,2008