346
Russell C. Coile
Richard Adkins analyzed the factors which might contribute to combat
ineffectiveness in his thesis, Analysis of Unit Breakpoints in Land Combat
at the Naval Postgraduate School (Adkins, 1975) Atkins listed fourteen
variables which he felt might affect breakpoints in land combat. These
variables are shown in Table 5.
Table 5. State Variables
Mission and associated objectives; Number of casualties and
number of key personnel who are casualties; Rate at which casualties are
occurring; Availability of critical supplies; Availability of communications
with subordinate units and higher HQs; Force ratio of friendly and enemy
combatants; Relative tactical posture of friendly and enemy combatants;
Training and experience level of friendly combatants; Fatigue and motivation;
Proportion of reserves committed; Status of adjacent units; Weather and
terrain conditions; Availability of reinforcements and supporting fi res;
Availability of means to evacuate and treat casualties.
Adkins felt that the decision making process leading to a forced posture
change would be based on the values or perceived values of a combination
of these state variable deemed relevant to the tactical situation
A U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency study examined 80 battles of
World War II and the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars. A summary of the
work, Battle Outcomes: Casualty Rates as a Measure of Defeat (McQuie,
1987) concluded that in most battles, defeat has not been caused by
casualties. A detailed review indicated that the most likely reason that the
loser gave up could be identifi ed in 52 of the 80 battles. The reasons in
these 52 battles were listed in Table 6.
Table 6. Reasons the Loser Gave Up
Maneuver by Enemy:
Envelopment, encirclement,
penetration
33 %
Adjacent friendly unit withdrew
13 %
Enemy occupied key terrain
6 %
Enemy achieved surprise
8 %
Summary :
A summary of the work, Battle Outcomes: Casualty Rates as a Measure of Defeat (McQuie, 1987) concluded that in most battles, defeat has not been caused by casualties. Reasons the Loser Gave Up Maneuver by Enemy: Envelopment, encirclement, penetration 33 % Adjacent friendly unit withdrew 13 % Enemy occupied key terrain 6 % Enemy achieved surprise 8 %
Tags :
casualties,enemy,table,friendly,aailability,battles,ariables,combatants,which,adkins,combat,felt,key